58% in Bay Area Poll Can’t Afford Kids as Prop 40 Fight Tops Ballot

New survey data and campaign finance filings across San Francisco, Mountain View & Menlo Park, CA in October 29, 2026 Reports (November 2026 Election) highlight how housing and utility costs are reshaping family decisions and fueling high-stakes ballot contests across the region.

1. Survey Finds 58% of Childless Bay Area Adults Under 50 Cannot Afford to Raise Children as SF Rents Climb 25%

As reported by NBC Bay Area journalist Christie Smith and KALW 91.7 reporter Nicole Won, 56% of 1,800 childless adults under 50 unlikely to have kids and 58% cannot afford to; SF rents up 25%, CA electricity +78% above the national average:

• Joint Venture Silicon Valley Poll: Surveying roughly 1,800 childless adults younger than 50 with the Bay Area News Group, Joint Venture Silicon Valley President and CEO Russell Hancock said: "The screaming headline is that people feel hammered in the Bay Area. They can't afford to live here, and it's getting worse. The main thing that’s upsetting to folks is that housing seems like it’s now completely out of reach."
• San Francisco Resident Perspectives & Ballot Measures: With San Francisco rents up 25% year-over-year and California electricity prices 78% higher than the national average, KALW interviewed residents Lynicia Thomas, Justice Jones, Gloriana Darwin, and former resident and blind musician Hannah Clemmensen ahead of November votes on state Proposition 40 and Proposition 37 (low-cost homebuyer mortgages) as well as San Francisco Propositions C and I (affordable housing funding) and Proposition B (a step toward a city-owned public bank).

2. Silicon Valley Billionaires Pour Over $140 Million Into Defeating Proposition 40

In the Mountain View Voice, reporter Riley Cooke detailed how Silicon Valley's wealthiest residents are financing opposition to Proposition 40—a 5% one-time tax (up to $100B over 5 years); $140M spent by Building a Better California PAC ($103M Sergey Brin) vs. $33M+ Yes on 40:

• No on 40 & Competing Measures 41 and 42: Roughly 200 California billionaires would be subject to the tax, including the Bay Area's five wealthiest residents (Larry Page, Sergey Brin, Mark Zuckerberg, Jensen Huang, and Eric Schmidt, whose combined net worth exceeds $900 billion; Huang told CBS Sunday Morning it would be a "privilege" to pay, while 49 other Midpeninsula billionaires have not donated). Building a Better California PAC has spent $140 million as of Oct. 28 (supporting the committee Doctors, Teachers, Small Businesses, Working Families and Public Safety Against the Reckless Wealth Tax Experiment alongside nullifying Propositions 41 and 42), led by $103 million from Sergey Brin, more than $40 million from Eric Schmidt, $40 million pledged by John Doerr, $33 million from Patrick Collisson, and $12 million from Vinod Khosla, plus donations from Andrew Karam, Kavitark Ram Shriram, Baiju Bhatt, Vlad Tenev, Hemant Taneja, George Marcus, and Robert Fisher. Separate opposition committees include Californians Against Tax Increases ($2.5 million from Schmidt, $3 million from Peter Thiel, $250,000 each from Douglas Leone and Patricia Perkins-Leone, contributing $835,000), Golden State Promise ($10 million from Chris Larsen and Ripple Labs plus $450,000 from the California Business Roundtable Issues PAC), and Right Path California Issues PAC (over $580,000).
• Yes on 40 Campaign: Proponents have raised just over $33 million, led by $32 million from SEIU-UHW's Billionaire Tax Now committee (whose chief of staff Suzanne Jimenez criticized opponents) and nearly $500,000 for Tax the Ultra-Rich Now (including $300,000 from Patriotic Millionaires member Alan Davis, joined by Los Altos advocate Scott Ellis, who suggested a $30 million threshold). Palo Alto Mayor Vicki Veenker noted the Palo Alto City Council declined to take a position despite up to 20 billionaire residents.

3. SF Mayor Daniel Lurie's $1.2M Consultant Spending and Peninsula Ballot Debates in Mountain View and Menlo Park

Three additional civic reports on October 29, 2026 detailed campaign and governance finances across San Francisco and the Peninsula:

• San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie's Financial Network: Hoodline writer Tony Ng (citing The San Francisco Standard, Mission Local, and CNBC) reported $1.2M–$1.22M personal funds on consultants ($355,000 Max Szabo, $201,352 Tyler Law); $60M+ Downtown Corp pledges ($34.3M secured) as of April 21 (including Google and OpenAI backing after June and December 2025 behested-payment waivers). Lurie's post-election payments also included $150,000 to Lis Smith, $137,500 to Jennifer Pitts (Matchstick Communications), $128,230 to VR Research, $132,600 for legal expenses, $33,000 for polling, and $24,500 to local political parties, while committees backing Charter Propositions D, E, and F raised roughly $13 million (including $6 million combined from Chris Larsen, Michael Moritz, and Lyna Lam, $1 million from John Pritzker, $250,000 from Thomas Laffont, and $125,000 from Andrew Richard Dudum and Lea Dudum, versus $200,000 raised by opponents of Proposition D) alongside nearly $30 million projected for Believe in SF (2025–2027).
• Mountain View Measures E & F and Menlo Park's 345-Unit BMR Debate: As reported by Mountain View Voice writer Emily Margaretten and The Almanac reporter Hannah Bensen, Mountain View Measures E & F (10% to 15% hotel tax, +$5.2M/yr) draw $12,500 support / $0 opposition; Menlo Park debates 345 BMR units. Mountain View's $12,500 campaign committee (which spent nearly $10,000 on mailings) was funded by Mountain View Professional Firefighters Local 1965 ($7,500), Councilmember Lucas Ramirez ($2,500), the Santa Clara and San Benito Counties Building and Constructions Trade Council ($2,000), and candidate James Kuszmaul ($500). In Menlo Park—where the March 2024 Housing Element requires 2,946 new units by 2031 (740 very-low-income, 426 low-income, and 496 moderate-income, totaling 1,662 affordable units, with 137 very-low-income permitted and 130 in the pipeline leaving 473 unaccounted for after Meta shelved its 306-affordable-unit Willow Village project)—District 4 candidate Laura Melahn proposed shifting 345 very-low-income units from three downtown parking lots (facing $19 million to $45 million replacement-garage gaps, or $74,000 to $250,000 per unit) to Parkline at 333 Ravenswood Ave. (154 units at 60% of the $126,000 AMI lowered to 50% AMI at $452/month or $5,424/year over 55 years, a $93,000/unit present value at a 5.5% discount rate) and the former USGS campus using the city's $4 million Below Market Rate fund ($15 million to $59 million across 345 to 452 units). Opponent Charlotte Reed, Jeremy Levine (Housing Leadership Council of San Mateo County), economist Stephen Levy, and analyst Adam Patterson criticized or questioned the buydown plan ahead of the Nov. 3 vote on Measure P.