AC Transit Contingency Plan Weighs 16% Bus Cuts If Measure RTM Fails

As Bay Area voters prepare to decide Tuesday on the Regional Transit Measure (Measure RTM) to address AC Transit's $200 million budget shortfall, riders with disabilities and transit advocates are warning that the agency's proposed contingency cuts could lengthen cross-bay commutes and reduce evening and weekend bus service, according to reporting by Nichelle Wong in Richmond Confidential and Oakland North.

If Measure RTM fails on Tuesday, AC Transit has proposed a contingency plan that could affect 16% of its buses and 1.4% of East Bay Paratransit trips beginning in June.

Paratransit Riders and Route Reductions in Oakland and Berkeley

According to AC Transit's 2025-2026 Rider Profile Survey, about 7% of surveyed riders reported having a disability, and roughly half of those respondents have mobility issues. Established by AC Transit and BART to comply with the Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990, East Bay Paratransit provides door-to-door service within three-quarters of a mile of main bus routes.

AC Transit spokesperson Robert Lyles stated that about 4,100 riders used paratransit between September and November 2025, adding that roughly 98% of paratransit trips and 96% of riders would not be affected by the proposed reductions, which he described as a "worst-case scenario."

However, speakers at the Oct. 14 AC Transit Board community hearing warned that fixed-route reductions would directly affect seniors and riders with disabilities:

• Oakland-to-San Francisco and Berkeley Routes: Under the contingency plan, the transbay Line F bus connecting Downtown Berkeley to the Salesforce Transit Center in San Francisco would lose all weekend service, while Line 12 — connecting Berkeley's Gilman District to the Oakland Amtrak station — could end service at 10 p.m.
• Rider Perspectives: Oakland artist Jillian Crochet, who uses a power wheelchair and must book paratransit rides by 5 p.m. the day before on rainy days, noted that her commute from Oakland to San Francisco already takes about 2 hours and could stretch to 3 hours if routes and drivers are cut, particularly as the pilot same-day wheelchair-accessible transport program Onward is only funded through the end of the year. Sheela Gunn, who is blind and serves as emergency preparedness coordinator at the Fruitvale Center for Independent Living, said riders who cannot afford Uber or Lyft have no backup when bus frequencies drop.

Taxpayer Opposition and SPUR’s Bay Bridge Traffic Analysis

Opponents of Measure RTM argue in the Alameda County Voter Information Guide that transit agencies do not need to cut service and can instead save money by trimming "wasteful spending" and correcting past management practices.

Supporters, including Transbay Coalition climate activist Carter Lavin, counter that transit reductions will affect drivers as well as bus riders. According to the "Bumper to Bumper" traffic analysis released in late September by the San Francisco Bay Area Planning and Urban Research Association (SPUR), implementing the transit cuts could increase traffic delays on the Bay Bridge by up to 33 minutes during morning peak hours and 43 minutes in the evening.